Is GPS inaccuracy consistent over short time spans?
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Question
I'm interested in developing a semi-autonomous RC lawnmower.
That is, the operator would decide when to stop, turn, etc., but could request "slightly overlap previous cut" and the mower would automatically do so. (Having operated high-end RC mowers at trade shows, this is the tedious part. Overcoming that, plus the high cost -- which I believe is possible -- would make a commercial success.)
This feature would require accurate horizontal positioning. I have investigated ultrasonic, laser, optical, and GPS. Each has its problems in this application. (I'll resist the temptation to go off on these tangents here.)
So... my question...
I know GPS horizontal accuracy is only 3-4m. Not good enough, but:
I don't need to know where I am on the planet. I only need to know where I am relative to where I was a minute ago.
So, my question is, is the inaccuracy consistent in the short term? if so, I think it would work for me. If it varies wildly by +- 1.5m from one second to the next, then it will not work.
I have tried to find this information but have had no success (possibly because of the ubiquity of other GPS-accuracy discussion), so I appreciate any guidance.
It's looking to me like GPS is not just skewed but granular. I'd be interested in hearing from anyone who can give better insight into this, but for now I'm going to explore other options.
I realized that even though my intended application is "outdoor", this question is technically in the field of "indoor positioning systems" so I am adding that tag.
My latest thinking is to have 3 "intelligent" high-dB ultrasonic (US) speaker units. The mower emits RF requests for a tone from each speaker in rapid sequence, measuring the time it takes to "hear" each unit's response, thereby calculating distance to each of these fixed point and using trilateration to get position. if the fixed-point speakers are 300' away from the mower, the mower may have moved several feet between the 1st and 3rd response, so this would have to be allowed for in the software. If it is possible to differentiate 3 different US frequencies, they could be requested/received "simultaneously". Though you still run into issues when you're close to one fixed unit and far from another. So some software correction may still be necessary. If we can assume the mower is moving in a straight line, this isn't too complicated.
Another variation is the mower does not request the tones. The fixed units send RF "here comes tone from unit A" etc., and the mower unit just monitors both RF info and US tones. This may simplify things somewhat, but it seems it really requires the ability to determine which speaker a tone is coming from.
# Answer
This seems like the kind of thing you could (and should) measure empirically. Just set a GPS of your liking down in the middle of a field on a clear day and wait an hour. Then come back and see what you find.
Because I'm in a city, I can't run out and do this for you. However, I found a paper entitled [iGeoTrans – A novel iOS application for GPS positioning in geosciences](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/261710565_iGeoTrans_-_A_novel_iOS_application_for_GPS_positioning_in_geosciences).
That includes this figure which duplicates the test I propose. You'll note that both the iPhone4 and Garmin eTrex10 perform pretty poorly versus the accuracy you say you need.
[![GPS accuracy][1]][1]
But the authors do some Math Magic™ to reduce the uncertainty in the position, presumably by using some kind of averaging. That gets them to a 3.53m RMSE measure.
If you have [real-time differential GPS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Differential_GPS), you can do better. But this requires relatively expensive hardware and software.
Even aside from the above, you have the potential issue of GPS reflection and multipath error. What if your mower has to go under a deck, or thick trees, or near the wall of a house? These common yard features will likely break the assumptions needed to make a good averaging algorithm work and even frustrate attempts at DGPS by blocking critical signals.
To my mind, this seems like a computer vision problem. And not just because that'll give you more accurate row overlaps... you definitely don't want to run over a dog!
[![GPSr][2]][2]
[1]: https://i.sstatic.net/qyRtT.png
[2]: https://i.sstatic.net/MEbwwm.png